Reconstructing Scottish football

(edited 23rd August)

There has been lots of talk about what's the future of Scottish football and something has to be done to get it more lucrative. Many have suggested around the Net what kind of league structure there should be and here are my thoughts about it. I'm in favour of adding few teams more to the Premiership so that there will be either 14, 16 or 18 team top division but I won't say no to present 12 or even to a 10 team division. Let's first compare some of the leagues and country sizes in Europe.

Big countries (population over 30 million with average of 18.00 teams in top division) :
1. Russia = 142 423 773 and 16 teams
2. Germany = 80 854 773 and 18 teams
3. Turkey = 79 414 269 and 18 teams
4. France = 66 553 766 and 20 teams
5. Italy = 61 855 120 and 20 teams
6. England = 53 865 817 and 20 teams
7. Spain = 48 146 134 and 20 teams
8. Ukraine = 44 429 471 and 14 teams
9. Poland = 38 562 189 and 16 teams

Medium-sized countries (population between 10 - 30 million with average of 15.71 teams in top division):
10. Romania = 21 666 350 and 14 teams
11. Kazakhstan = 17 948 816 and 12 teams
12. Netherlands = 16 947 816 and 18 teams
13. Belgium = 11 323 973 and 16 teams
14. Portugal = 10 825 309 and 18 teams
15. Greece = 10 775 643 and 16 teams
16. Czech = 10 644 842 and 16 teams

Small countries (population 1 - 10 million with average of 11.77 teams in top division): 
17. Hungary = 9 897 541 and 12 teams
18. Sweden = 9 784 445 and 16 teams
19. Azerbaidjan = 9 870 780 and 10 teams
20. Belarus = 9 589 689 and 14 teams
21. Austria = 8 665 550 and 10 teams
22. Switzerland = 8 121 830 and 10 teams
23. Serbia = 7 243 007 and 16 teams
24. Bulgaria = 7 186 893 and 10 teams
25. Denmark = 5 659 715 and 12 teams
26. Finland = 5 471 753 and 12 teams
27. Slovakia = 5 445 027 and 12 teams
28. Scotland = 5 327 700 and 12 teams
29. Norway = 5 177 000 and 16 teams
30. Georgia = 4 931 226 and 16 teams
31. Ireland = 4 892 305 and 12 teams
32. Croatia = 4 464 844 and 10 teams
33. Bosnia and Herzegovina = 3 867 055 and 16 teams
34. Moldova = 3 546 847 and 10 teams
35. Armenia = 3 056 382 and 8 teams
36. Albania = 3 029 278 and 10 teams
37. Lithuania = 2 904 391 and 10 teams
38. Macedonia = 2 096 015 and 10 teams
39. Latvia = 1 989 500 and 8 teams
40. Slovenia = 1 983 412 and 10 teams
41. Kosovo = 1 870 981 and 12 teams
42. Estonia = 1 313 271 and 10 teams
43. Cyprus = 1 189 197 and 14 teams

Micro countries (population less than 1 million) are omitted from the list.

First glimpse tells you that mainly countries that have large population can sustain bigger leagues (average of 18.00 teams) and smaller countries can hold of smaller leagues (average of 11.77 teams) but there are also small countries (Sweden, Serbia, Norway, Georgia and B&H) who have 16 team leagues. But according to this list it looks like smaller countries mainly just don't have enough quality teams to support a bigger league. Is it the same thing with Scotland?

Let's see what different proposals there might be.

Tables are taken from the situation that was at 19th August 2015.

PROPOSAL 1:  
10 team Premiership

Last time a team outside Old Firm won the title it was the eighties and Scotland had a 10 team league system. Positive thing would be that the top teams will have tougher games when they play each other four times but then again a negative side is that to the fans it would be quite boring meeting the same teams many teams during a season. I assume that most fans don't want this system because of that. But countries like Switzerland and Austria have switched back to 10 team leagues to make them more competitive. Perhaps it's just not realistic to a smaller country to have a bigger top division (16-20 teams). There's just not enough quality teams. To add more interest would be relegation play-offs (home and away) so teams 2, 3 & 4 from championship would have a chance to beat a premiership team and win a promotion.

SPFL Premiership: 36 games. 

1. Hearts
2. Celtic
3. Aberdeen
4. Dundee
5. Hamilton
6. Ross
================
7. Dundee Utd  (to play 4th of Championship)
8. Partick Thistle (to play 3rd of Championship)
9. Motherwell (to play 2nd of Championship)
===================
10. St. Johnstone (to be relegated)

SPFL Championship (36 games)

1. Inverness CT (to be promoted)

==================

2. Kilmarnock (to play 9th of Premiership)

3. Rangers (to play 8th of Premiership)
4. Queen of the South (to play 7th of Premiership)
==================
5. Dumbarton
6. Falkirk
7. Raith Rovers
8. Hibernian
=====================
9. Morton (to play against the 2nd of League One)
=================
10. St. Mirren (to be relegated)

SPFL League One (36 games)
Will have 10 teams and the same structure as Championship. Winner will be promoted and the second plays against 9th of Championship. 

SPFL League Two (33 games)
Will have 12 teams and play each other three times. Winner to be promoted and the runner-up play against 9th of League One.

PROPOSAL 2: 
12 team Premiership with ice-hockey style play-offs

In America they have play-offs in every major sport to make the leagues more interesting to fans and random spectators. Why not try play-offs at European football also? Especially Scotland needs something that makes the league more interesting to watch and to get a better TV deals. Perhaps Scotland should try this system at least for few seasons to see how it goes and scrap it if it wasn't suitable. 12 team top division is slightly difficult because with two rounds it's too short (22 games) and four rounds it's too long (44 games).

This suggestion has Premiership with still 12 teams because many believe there aren't enough good teams in Scotland and therefore a bigger top division is out of the question. Perhaps so. With 12 teams in top division they would play a regular season of 33 games (three rounds) and after that the top 8 goes to play-offs to settle who wins the league. That would be quite a happening instead of seeing Celtic win the title already in February, right? And every game would mean something and because the title would be decided at finals in May that gives people something to be excited about without losing interest earlier.

SPFL Premiership (33-39 games)
1. Hearts (to play-offs)
2. Celtic (to play-offs)
3. Aberdeen (to play-offs)
4. Dundee (to play-offs)
5. Hamilton (to play-offs)
6. Ross (to play-offs)
7. Dundee Utd (to play-offs)
8. Partick Thistle (to play-offs)
===================
9. Motherwell (to play 4th of Championship)
10. St. Johnstone (to play 3rd of Championship)
11. Inverness CT (to play 2nd of Championship)
===================
12. Kilmarnock (to be relegated)

So first round of the play-offs (home and away) would be Hearts vs. Partick Thisle, Celtic vs. Dundee Utd, Aberdeen vs. Ross and Dundee vs. Hamilton. Winners proceed to the next level and finally two teams will reach the 2 legged final.
Relegation play-offs (home and away) will be: Motherwell vs. Falkirk, St. Johnstone vs. Dumbarton and Inverness vs. Queen of the South. Winners will have a place at the top division.

SPFL Championship (36-38 games)
1. Rangers (to be promoted)
=====================
2. Queen of the South (to play 11th of Premiership)
3. Dumbarton (to play 10th of Premiership)
4. Falkirk (to play 9th of Premiership)
=====================
5. Raith Rovers
6. Hibernian
=====================
7. Morton (to play 2nd of League One)
8. St. Mirren (to play 3rd of League One)
9. Livingston (to play 4th of League One)
=====================
10. Alloa (to be relegated)

League 1 play-offs: Morton vs. Stenhousemuir, St. Mirren vs. Peterhead and Livingston vs. Forfar.

SPFL League One (36 games)
Will have 10 teams and the same structure as Championship. Winner will be promoted and teams 2-4  plays against 7-9 of Championship. 

SPFL League Two (33 games)
Will have 10 teams and play each other three times. Winner to be promoted and teams 2-4 play against 7-9 of League One.

PROPOSAL 3: 
Three divisions of 14 teams each or 14-10-18 in three divisions with splits

I assume that this proposal is quite much supported by fans all over and I think this has its benefits too. After two rounds (26 games) divisions will be divided into two and then two rounds of 12 games in the top and bottom to make it a total of 38 games per season. Of course the negative side is that the split comes so soon. How much teams who are left out of the top half have interest to play? Let's say that teams 8-11 might have secured by then their staying at the top division so to them those games aren't giving any extra pressure. But for the top half this would give tough games against each other especially against Celtic (and Rangers when they're back) and that might help other big teams like Aberdeen, Hearts, Hibs and Dundee Utd getting tougher games instead of playing small teams. How much this really differs from 10 team top division (with four meetings)? Not much because still there are four meetings with certain teams but this might still be better thus giving a chance to 14 teams instead of 10. The advantage of this proposal is that this combines different proposals: every team meets Old Firm twice (like in proposals 4, 5 and 6) and the best ones possibly have four meetings and therefore teams will have more tougher games (like in proposal 1).

SPFL Premiership: 38 games
1. Hearts
2. Celtic
3. Aberdeen
4. Dundee 
5. Hamilton 
6. Ross 
7. Dundee Utd
==============
8. Partick Thistle 
9. Motherwell
10. St. Johnstone
=================
11. Inverness CT (to play-offs)
12. Kilmarnock (to play-offs)
=================
13. Rangers (to be relegated)
14. Queen of the South (to be relegated)

SPFL Championship (36 or 38 games)
Will have either 10 or 14 teams. Will therefore play either 36 games or has same system as Premiership. Two goes down and teams 11-12 to play-offs.

SPFL Conference (38 or 34 games)
Will have either 14 or 18 teams teams. System is either the same as Premiership or they play 34 games. Two goes up and teams 3-4 goes to play-offs.

PROPOSAL 4: 
16 team Premiership with OR without play-offs

Okay, I like the idea of a bigger top division and 16 teams sounds good to me. That would mean a 30 game regular season and then top 8 goes to play-offs. Then there would be 30-36 games.
Also the last team will be relegated and teams 12-15 go to relegation play-offs. Some argue that 30 games would be too less because of loss of income from home games and I agree that's a problem in this system but play-offs might help in this one.

SPFL Premiership IF play-offs included (30-36 games). Without play-offs: 30 games
1. Hearts (to play-offs)
2. Celtic (to play-offs)
3. Aberdeen (to play-offs)
4. Dundee (to play-offs)
5. Hamilton (to play-offs)
6. Ross (to play-offs)
7. Dundee Utd (to play-offs)
8. Partick Thistle (to play-offs)
===================
9. Motherwell
10. St. Johnstone
11. Inverness CT
===================
12. Kilmarnock (to play 2nd of Championship)
13. Rangers (to play 3rd of Championship)
14. Queen of the South (to play 4th of Championship)
15. Dumbarton (to play 5th of Championship)
===================
16. Falkirk (to be relegated)

SPFL Championship (36 games)
will have 10 teams and they play each other four times. Winner will be promoted and teams 2-5 will play teams 12-15 from premiership in play-offs. Two goes down. Teams 7-8 will play in play-offs with teams 3-4 of League One. 

SPFL League One (30 games)
will have the rest 16 teams and they play each other twice. Two goes up and teams 3-4 play teams 7-8 of Championship in play-offs. 


PROPOSAL 5: 
16 team Premiership and the similar system as Polish Extraklasa has

In Poland their top division Extraklasa has an interesting league system (from Wikipedia): "There are 16 clubs in the Ekstraklasa. During the course of the season each club plays the others twice, once at their home stadium and once at that of their opponents, for a total of 30 games (240 games in the season). From the 2013–14 season onward after 30th round league will be split into 'champion' (top eight teams) and 'relegation' (bottom eight teams) groups. Each team will play seven more games (1–4 and 9–12 teams will play four times at home), starting with half the points (rounded up) achieved during the first phase of 30 matches."

How about that? Halving the points would also bring more interest to the league, right?

PROPOSAL 6: 
18 team Premiership

I agree that this proposal is the most unlikely one because of getting 18 good teams into it. Scotland only has 21 (?) professional teams so I don't think this will never go through. After re-thinking play-offs might not suit this system.

SPFL Premiership: 34 games
1. Hearts
2. Celtic 
3. Aberdeen 
4. Dundee
5. Hamilton 
6. Ross
7. Dundee Utd
8. Partick Thistle 
9. Motherwell
10. St. Johnstone
11. Inverness CT
12. Kilmarnock
===================
13. Rangers (to play 3rd of Championship)
14. Queen of the South (to play 4th of Championship)
15. Dumbarton (to play 5th of Championship)
16. Falkirk (to play 6th of Championship)
===================
17. Raith Rovers (to be relegated)
18. Hibernian (to be relegated)

SPFL Championship (33 games)
will have 12 teams and they play each other three times. Winners will be promoted and teams 3-6 will play teams 13-16 from premiership in play-offs. One goes down. 

SPFL League One (33 games)

will have 12 teams and they play each other three times. Winner will be promoted and teams 2-5 will play teams 8-11 from Championship in play-offs. 

Final words:
It's hard to choose the best proposal and schenario that helps Scottish football. All of them have pros and cons. If I have to choose now the one to pick it might be 14 teams in Premiership... or 16... or 10... or... Argh. Really hard.  Anyway the main issue is that Scotland needs to reform their league to make it more interesting and to bring more fans into the terraces. Also better TV deals would be easier to get when you have a better and more competitive league. And nowadays money means much more than it meant in the good ol' days. Hopefully something happens soon and we'll see a revival of Scottish fitba'...

Some interesting links:

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/opinion/sport/record-fc-dundee-united-celtic-6323654

http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/13416017.Neil_Doncaster_suggests_SPFL_restructure_may_be_only_way_forward/

http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/584318/Departing-SFA-president-Campbell-Ogilvie-predicts-league-changes

http://www.sundaypost.com/sport/football/scottish-football-league-reconstruction-a-major-change-and-not-just-for-the-sake-of-it-1.878373

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/all-about/scottish-football-reconstruction

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/opinion/sport/record-fc-dundee-united-summer-5243815

http://sport.stv.tv/topics/league-reconstruction/

http://www.scottishfa.co.uk/resources/documents/SFAPublications/HenryMcLeishReviewofScottishFootball/Review%20Scottish%20Football%20Pt2%20FINAL.pdf