Thursday 2 July 2015

Euroopan mielenkiintoisin jalkapalloliiga / The most interesting football league in Europe 2015

(Fin)
(photo courtesy of www.mff.se)
Tänä vuonna taasen tuli laskettua muutamien eurooppalaisten jalkapalloliigojen tilastoja ja laadinkin niiden perusteella rankingin Euroopan mielenkiintoisimmasta liigasta. Samalla nähdään myös mikä on se tylsin liiga. Huom! Kyseessä siis puhtaasti tilastoihin perustuva laskelma ja päätelmä mikä on mielenkiintoisin/jännittävin/tasaväkisin liiga ja tällä siis haen sitä ajatelmaa, että mikä liiga tarjoaa faneille ns. parhaimman vastineen rahoillensa eli jännitystä koko rahan edestä. Onhan se mielestäni vähän tylsää jos jo ennen kauden alkua voi joko iloita oman joukkueensa tulevaa mestaruutta tai sitä, että tälläkään kertaa ei ole mitään asiaa mestaruuteen. Eihän siinä jää mitään jännitettävää kauden osalta.

Laskuihin otin mukaan 25 suurinta liigaa puhtaasti katsoen vain katsojakeskiarvoja + tietenkin kotoisen Veikkausliigan. Muut liigat jätän suosiolla rauhaan, koska eurooppalaisia liigoja kun vaan on niin paljon (54 muistaakseni UEFA:n mukaan).

Tilastot jaoin neljään eri lohkoon eli 1) koko historia (eli millä joukkueella on eniten mestaruuksia ja kuinka suuri osa tästä koko historiasta on tällä joukkueella sekä kuinka monta eri mestaria löytyy), 2) Viimeiset 20 kautta, 3) Viimeiset 10 kautta ja 4) Viimeiset 5 kautta. Olen myös laskenut eri osioille eri pistekertoimet. Koko historialle annan vain 1x pisteet, koska vanhat jo esim. 100 vuotta sitten pelatut ottelut eivät enää tähän päivään vaikuta millään tavalla. Viimeiset 20 kautta pisteet on tuplattu ja lähihistoriat on triplapisteillä. Lähihistoria (viimeiset 10 vuotta) on kuitenkin tällä hetkellä se mikä painaa eniten liigojen mielenkiintoisuudessa.

(Eng)
It's time again to calculate European football statistics and decide what league is the most interesting and what is the most boring. Note! This is purely based on statistics and it only calculates what league is the most interesting/exciting/most even etc. meaning what league gives you the best value for your money throughout the whole season. It is boring if you already know before the first kick off that your team will win the league or vice versa your team don't have a chance to win it - again.

I decided to choose 25 biggest leagues according to average attendances + Finnish Veikkausliiga (that's my home league so to say). Because there are so many European leagues I leave the smaller ones alone (54 leagues according to UEFA if my memory serves me right).

I've divided these calculations to four different sections: 1) the whole league history (who have the most titles and what is the percentage from whole league history plus how many different winners there are), 2) Last 20 seasons, 3) Last 10 seasons and 4) Last 5 seasons. I've doubled the section two's points and tripled third and fourth because I think near history counts more than e.g. seasons a hundred years ago.


TULOKSET/ RESULTS:
KOKONAISPISTEET / TOTAL POINTS:


01. SWEDEN = 131
02. POLAND = 128
03. FRANCE = 127
04. Kazakhstan = 123
05. Denmark = 112
06. Israel = 110
07. Norway = 107
08. Romania = 106
09. England = 98
09. Austria = 98
09. Russia = 98
12. Czech = 97
13. Belgium = 93
13. Netherlands = 89
15. Germany = 88
16. Spain = 85
17. Italy = 81
18. Turkey = 79
19. Finland = 73
20. Portugal = 65
21. Serbia = 63

22. Switzerland = 61
23. Scotland = 56
24. UKRAINE = 51
25. CROATIA = 32
26. GREECE = 31

(Fin)
Tämän listan mukaan siis mielenkiintoisimmat olisivat Ruotsin Allsvenskan, Puolan Extraklasa sekä Ranskan Ligue 1. Kaikista kolmesta liigasta löytyy monia mestareita ja yksikään joukkue ei lähde selvänä suosikkina kauteen. Jännittäviä liigoja siis kannattajien näkökulmasta. Niin kutsutuista Big Five -liigoista mielenkiintoisin on siis tuo Ranskan liiga, Englanti seuraa toisena, Saksa kolmantena, Espanja neljäntenä ja Italia on viides. Listan toisessa päässä on selkeästi taasen Kreikka ja Kroatia, joidenka liigoja hallitsee yksi joukkue: Olympiakos Kreikassa ja Dinamo Zagreb Kroatiassa. Dinamo on muuten voittanut viimeiset 10 oman maansa mestaruutta. Meneekö Skonto Rigan (Latvia) 14 ja Rosenborgin (Norja) 13 peräkkäistä mestaruutta -ennätykset Kroatiassa vielä rikki? Mahdollisesti. Kuulostaa tylsältä, vai mitä?

(Eng)
So, according to this list Swedish, Polish and French leagues are the most interesting ones because they have lots of different champions and none of the teams start the season as a clear favourite. Interesting leagues from the point of view of a fan. When looking at the so called Big Five the order is France-England-Germany-Spain-Italy. At the other end are Greece and Croatia where only one team dominates: Olympiakos at Greece and Dinamo Zagreb at Croatia where they've won the last 10 titles and possibly break the record of 14-in-a-row by Skonto Riga (Latvia) and 13 by Rosenborg (Norway). Sounds very boring, right?

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OSIO 1 / SECTION 1:
KOKO HISTORIA / THE WHOLE HISTORY

Eniten mestaruuksia / most championship titles:
01. St. Etienne (France) = 10 titles / 77 seasons (13% from the total) = 10 points
02. Malmö & IFK Göteborg (Sweden) = 18 / 116 (18%) = 10 points
02. Manchester Utd (England) = 20 / 116 (18%) = 10 points
02. Gornik & Wisla (Poland) = 18 / 80 (18%) = 10 points
05. Grasshopper (Switzerland) = 27 / 116 (24%) = 9 points
06. Bayern München (Germany) = 25 / 103 (25%) = 8 points
07. HJK (Finland) = 27 / 105 (26%) = 8 points
08. Steaua Bucuresti (Romania) = 26 / 97 (27%) = 8 points
09. Juventus (Italy) = 31 / 110 (29%) = 8 points
09. Ajax (Netherlands) = 33 / 117 (29%) = 8 points
09. Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel) = 21 / 73 (29%) = 8 points
12. Anderlecht (Belgium) = 33 / 112 (30%) = 7 points
13. Cervena Zvezda & Partizan Belgrade (Serbia) = 26 / 85 (31%) = 7 points*
14. Rapid Wien (Austria) = 32 / 103 (32%) = 7 points
15. Rosenborg (Norway) = 22 / 68 (33%) = 7 points
16. Irtysh & Aktobe (Kazakhstan) = 8 / 23 (35%) = 6 points
17. Galatasaray (Turkey) = 20 / 57 (36%) = 6 points
18. Benfica (Portugal) = 34 / 90 (38%) = 6 points
19. Real Madrid (Spain) = 32 / 84 (39%) = 6 points
20. Spartak Moskva (Russia) = 9 / 23 (40%) = 5 points
20. FC Kobenhavn (Denmark) = 10 / 25 (40%) = 5 points**
22. Rangers (Scotland) = 54 / 119 (46%) = 4 points
23. Olympiakos (Greece) = 42 / 79 (54%) = 3 points
24. Sparta Prague (Czech) = 12 / 22 (55%) = 3 points
25. Dynamo Kiev (Ukraine) = 14 / 24 (59%) = 3 points
26. Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia) = 17 / 24 (71%) = 1 point
* including history of Yugoslavia
** Danish league taken into account after Superliga formed in 1992
(-19% = 10p, 20-24% = 9p, 25-29% = 8p, 30-34% = 7p, 35-39% = 6p, 40-44% = 5p, 45-49% = 4p, 50-59% = 3p, 60-69% = 2p, 70%-> = 1p)

Kuinka monta eri mestaria suhteessa kausiin / how many different winners compared to seasons
01. Kazakhstan = 8 different winners / 23 seasons (2.9%) = 10 points
02. Denmark = 8 / 25 (3.2%) = 10 points
03. Germany = 28 / 103 (3.7%) = 10 points
04. Russia = 6 / 23 (3.9%) = 10 points
04. France = 20 / 77 (3.9%) = 10 points
06. Finland = 25 / 105 (4.2%) = 9 points
07. Norway = 16 / 68 (4.3%) = 9 points
08. Czech = 5 / 22 (4.4%) = 9 points
08. Netherlands = 27 / 117 (4.4%) = 9 points
08. Romania = 22 / 97 (4.4%) = 9 points
11. Poland = 16 / 80 (5.0%) = 8 points
12. England = 23 / 116 (5.1%) = 8 points
13. Israel = 14 / 73 (5.3%) = 8 points
14. Sweden = 19 / 116 (6.2%) = 7 points
14. Switzerland = 19 / 117 (6.2%) = 7 points
16. Austria = 16 / 103 (6.5%) = 7 points
17. Serbia = 13 / 85 (6.6%) = 7 points
18. Italy = 16 / 110 (6.9%) = 7 points
19. Belgium = 16 / 112 (7.0%) = 6 points
20. Croatia = 3 / 24 (8.0%) = 5 points
20. Ukraine = 3 / 24 (8.0%) = 5 points
22. Spain = 9 / 84 (9.4%) = 4 points
23. Scotland = 11 / 119 (10.9%) = 3 points
24. Turkey = 5 / 57 (11.4%) = 2 points
25. Portugal = 7 / 90 (12.9%) = 2 points
26. Greece = 6 / 79 (13.2%) = 1 point
(-4% = 10p, 4-5% = 9p, 5-6% = 8p, 6-7% = 7p, 7-8% = 6p, 8-9% = 5p, 9-10% = 4p, 10-11% = 3p, 11-13% = 2p, 13%-> = 1p)

OSIO 2 / SECTION 2: 
VIIMEISET 20 KAUTTA / LAST 20 SEASONS

Eniten mestaruuksia / most championship titles:
01. Malmö FF (Sweden) = 4 titles (20%) = 18 points
02. Aktobe (Kazakhstan) = 5  (25%) = 16 points
03. Spartak Moskva & CSKA (Russia) = 6 (30%) = 14 points
04. Olympique Lyon (France) = 7 (35%) = 12 points
04. Maccabi Haifa (Israel) = 7 (35%) = 12 points
06. Austria Salzburg (Austria) = 7 (35%) = 12 points
07. Wisla Krakowa (Poland) = 8 (40%) = 10 points
08. Juventus (Italy) = 9 (45%) = 8 points
08. HJK (Finland) = 9 (45%) = 8 points
08. PSV (Netherlands) = 9 (45%) = 8 points
08. FC Kobenhavn (Denmark) = 9 (45%) = 8 points
08. Barcelona (Spain) = 9 (45%) = 8 points
08. Anderlecht (Belgium) = 9 (45%) = 8 points
08. Steaua Bucuresti (Romania) = 9 (45%) = 8 points
15. Basel (Switzerland) = 10 (50%) = 6 points
15. Galatasaray (Turkey) = 10 (50%) = 6 points
15. Sparta Prague (Czech) = 10 (50%) = 6 points
15. Celtic (Scotland) = 11 (55%) = 6 points
15. Manchester Utd (England) = 11 (55%) = 6 points
15. Dynamo Kiev (Ukraine) = 11 (55%) = 6 points
21. Bayern München (Germany) = 12 (60%) = 4 points
22. Partizan Belgrade (Serbia) = 13 (65%) = 4 points
22. FC Porto (Portugal) = 13 (65%) = 4 points
22. Rosenborg (Norway) = 13 (65%) = 4 points
25. Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia) = 16 (80%) = 2 points
25. Olympiakos (Greece) = 17 (85%) = 2 points
(-19% = 20p, 20-24% = 18p, 25-29% = 16p, 30-34% = 14p, 35-39% = 12p, 40-44% = 10p, 45-49% = 8p, 50-59% = 6p, 60-69% = 4p, 70%-> = 2p)

Kuinka monta eri mestaria  / how many different winners
01. France = 10 different winners = 20 points
02. Sweden = 9 = 18 points
03. Kazakhstan = 8 = 16 points
03. Poland = 8 = 16 points
05. Denmark = 7 = 14 points
06. Switzerland = 6 = 12 points
06. Finland = 6 = 12 points
06. Austria = 6 = 12 points
06. Norway = 6 = 12 points
06. Germany = 6 = 12 points
06. Russia = 6 = 12 points
06. Belgium = 6 = 12 points
06. Romania = 6 = 12 points
14. Czech = 5 = 10 points
14. Spain = 5 = 10 points
14. Netherlands = 5 = 10 points
14. Italy = 5 = 10 points
14. Israel = 5 = 10 points
19. England = 4 = 8 points
19. Portugal = 4 = 8 points
19. Turkey = 4 = 8 points
22. Serbia = 3 = 6 points
22. Croatia = 3 = 6 points
24. Greece = 2 = 4 points
24. Scotland = 2 = 4 points
24. Ukraine = 2 = 4 points
(tuplaa mestareiden määrä / double the amount of champions)

OSA 3 / SECTION 3: 
10 VIIMEISINTÄ KAUTTA / LAST 10 SEASONS

Eniten mestaruuksia / most championship titles:
01. Malmö (Sweden) = 3 titles = 21 points
01. Wisla Krakow & Legia Warsaw (Poland) = 3 titles = 21 points
01. Sparta Prague & Viktoria Plzen (Czech) = 3 = 21 points
01. Rosenborg & Molde (Norway) = 3 = 21 points
01. Lyon & PSG (France) = 3 = 21 points
01. Maccabi Tel Aviv & Maccabi Haifa = 3 = 21 points
07. CSKA & Zenit (Russia) = 4 = 18 points
07. Ajax & PSV (Netherlands) = 4 = 18 points
07. Steaua Bucuresti (Romania) = 4 = 18 points
10. Aktobe (Kazakhstan) = 5 = 15 points
10. Galatasaray (Turkey) = 5 = 15 points
10. Internazionale (Italy) = 5 = 15 points
10. Manchester Utd (England) = 5 = 15 points
14. Austria Salzburg (Austria) = 6 = 12 points
14. HJK (Finland) = 6 = 12 points
14. Barcelona (Spain) = 6 = 12 points
14. FC Kobenhavn (Denmark) = 6 = 12 points
14. Bayern München (Germany) = 6 = 12 points
14. Anderlecht (Belgium) = 6 = 12 points
20. Celtic (Scotland) = 7 = 9 points
20. Basel (Switzerland) = 7 = 9 points
20. Partizan Belgrade (Serbia) = 7 = 9 points
20. FC Porto (Portugal) = 7 = 9 points
20. Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukraine) = 7 = 9 points
25. Olympiakos (Greece) = 9 = 6 points
26. Dinamo Zabreb (Croatia) = 10 = 3 points
(1 = 30p, 2 = 24p, 3 = 21p, 4 = 18p, 5 = 15p, 6 = 12p, 7 = 9p, 8 = 6p, 9 & 10 = 3p)

Kuinka monta eri mestaria / how many different winners
01. Sweden = 7 different winners = 21 points
02. France = 6 = 18 points
02. Norway = 6 = 18 points
04. Denmark = 5 = 15 points
04. Poland = 5 = 15 points
04. Romania = 5 = 15 points
04. Israel = 5 = 15 points
08. Finland = 4 = 12 points
08. Austria = 4 = 12 points
08. Germany = 4 = 12 points
08. Belgium = 4 = 12 points
08. Czech = 4 = 12 points
08. Netherlands = 4 = 12 points
08. Turkey = 4 = 12 points
08. Kazakhstan = 4 = 12 points
16. Russia = 3 = 9 points
16. England = 3 = 9 points
16. Spain = 3 = 9 points
16. Italy = 3 = 9 points
20. Greece = 2 = 6 points
20. Portugal = 2 = 6 points
20. Scotland = 2 = 6 points
20. Serbia = 2 = 6 points
20. Switzerland = 2 = 6 points
20. Ukraine = 2 = 6 points
26. Croatia = 1 = 3 points
(triplaa mestareiden määrä / triple the amount of champions)

OSA 4 / SECTION 4: 
5 VIIMEISINTÄ KAUTTA / LAST 5 SEASONS

Eniten mestaruuksia / most championship titles:
01. Manchester Utd & Manchester City (England) = 2 titles = 24 points
01. Shakhter (Kazakhstan) = 2 = 24 points
01. FC Kobenhavn (Denmark) = 2 = 24 points
01. Legia Warsaw (Poland) = 2 = 24 points
05. Malmö (Sweden) = 3 = 18 points
05. Zenit (Russia) = 3 = 18 points
05. Viktoria Plzen (Czech) = 3 = 18 points
05. Molde (Norway) = 3 = 18 points
05. PSG (France) = 3 = 18 points
05. Galatasaray (Turkey) = 3 = 18 points
05. Austria Salzburg (Austria) = 3 = 18 points
05. Barcelona (Spain) = 3 = 18 points
05. Bayern München (Germany) = 3 = 18 points
05. Anderlecht (Belgium) = 3 = 18 points
05. FC Porto (Portugal) = 3 = 18 points
05. Steaua Bucuresti (Romania) = 3 = 18 points
05. Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel) = 3 = 18 points
18. Juventus (Italy) = 4 = 12 points
18. Celtic (Scotland) = 4 = 12 points
18. Ajax (Netherlands) = 4 = 12 points
18. Partizan Belgrade (Serbia) = 4 = 12 points
22. Olympiakos (Greece) = 5 = 6 points
22. HJK (Finland) = 5 = 6 points
22. Basel (Switzerland) = 5 = 6 points
22. Shakhtar Donetsk (ukraine) = 5 = 6 points
22. Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia) = 5 = 6 points
(1 = 30p, 2 = 24p, 3 = 18p, 4 = 12p, 5 = 6p)

Kuinka monta eri mestaria / how many different winners
01. Denmark = 4 different champions = 24 points
01. Poland = 4 = 24 points
01. Kazakhstan = 4 = 24 points
04. Sweden = 3 = 18 points
04. France = 3 = 18 points
04. Norway = 3 = 18 points
04. Austria = 3 = 18 points
04. Belgium = 3 = 18 points
04. Czech = 3 = 18 points
04. England = 3 = 18 points
04. Spain = 3 = 18 points
04. Romania = 3 = 18 points
04. Israel = 3 = 18 points
14. Germany = 2 = 12 points
14. Netherlands = 2 = 12 points
14. Turkey = 2 = 12 points
14. Russia = 2 = 12 points
14. Italy = 2 = 12 points
14. Portugal = 2 = 12 points
14. Scotland = 2 = 12 points
14. Serbia = 2 = 12 points
14. Ukraine = 2 = 12 points
23. Finland = 1 = 6 points
23. Greece = 1 = 6 points
23. Switzerland = 1 = 6 points
23. Croatia = 1 = 6 points
(5 = 30p, 4 = 24p, 3 = 18p, 2 = 12p, 1 = 6p)

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